The Guardian reports: Investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel, the Royal Bank of Scotland have warned. In a note to clients, it said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital.”
Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists
The Guardian, Jan 12
Investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel, economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland have warned. In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point. (Also read: Global markets turmoil echoes 2008 financial crisis, warns George Soros)
China’s avalanche stokes fears of global recession
Swaminathan S Aiyar, The Times of India, Jan 17
An avalanche of dollars exiting China threatens to smother all emerging markets (EMs), including India, and cause a global recession. Almost $ 600 billion have exited China in the last six months, a mammoth $100 billion per month.This would have emptied the forex reserves of almost any other country, but China still has $3.3 trillion left. However, it cannot afford a continuing outflow at this rate.
The Deflation Monster Has Arrived
Chris Martenson, PeakProsperity.com, Jan 15
As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling. While there may be a market rescue that provide some relief in the near term, looking at the next few years, we will experience this as a time of unprecedented financial market turmoil, political upheaval and social unrest. The losses will be staggering. Markets are going to crash, wealth will be transferred from the unwary to the well-connected, and life for most people will get harder as measured against the recent past.
Albert Edwards Hits Peak Pessimism: “S&P Will Fall 75%”, Global Recession Looms
Zero Hedge, Jan 13, 2016
“I believe the Fed and its promiscuous fraternity of central banks have created the conditions for another debacle every bit as large as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. I believe the events we now see unfolding will drive us back into global recession.”
Why are we looking on helplessly as markets crash all over the world?
Will Hutton, The Guardian, Jan 17
It’s clear what needs to happen. There needs to be wholesale change in economic thinking. Forces in world labour markets – new forms of 21st-century trade unionism – need to be strengthened. The power of financial markets needs to be constrained. Credit growth needs to be managed by direct controls on the growth of bank balance sheets and banks need to be weaned off the financial casino they have built.
Has The Crash of 2016 Now Begun? What Can & Should Be Done? (Video)
RT.com, Jan 5
Economist Dr. Richard Wolff, Democracy At Work, goes off on the state of the economy w/Thom. What no one is talking about is the fact that that China isn’t driving the looming economic crash – what’s driving it is the fact that so-called “free market” capitalism and austerity politics are failing at a global scale.
2016 – Year Of The ‘Epocalypse’
David Haggith, The Great Recession blog
What follows are the megatrends that will increasingly gang up in the first part of 2016 to stomp the deeply flawed global economy down into its own hole of debt. The economic collapse that is already developing includes the US economy and the US stock market that is now collapsing from the external forces and internal vacuum that I’ve been writing about for a few years here.
Deflationary Collapse Ahead?
Both the stock market and oil prices have been plunging. Is this “just another cycle,” or is it something much worse? I think it is something much worse. Back in January, I wrote a post called Oil and the Economy: Where are We Headed in 2015-16? In it, I said that persistent very low prices could be a sign that we are reaching limits of a finite world. In fact, the scenario that is playing out matches up with what I expected to happen in my January post.
Stock market confessions, chaos, complexity and the illusion of control
The complex system of financial markets we’ve created and then tied all together electronically has become subject to increasingly frequent bouts of chaos that our financial models tell us cannot happen. It now ought to be clear that the mathematical models by which major banks and other financial institutions manage their risks are badly flawed.